My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $29.12

Current Yield: ~17%

The current market environment is becoming increasingly attractive for covered call ETFs.

While many investors remain cautious toward the space—and for good reason—I believe that buying and holding select covered call funds within a diversified portfolio can be an effective long-term strategy for income-oriented investors.

Like any investment category, it’s important to separate the wheat from the chaff. While many covered call ETFs advertise eye-catching double-digit yields, some generate those payouts at the expense of long-term capital preservation, ultimately defeating the purpose of income investing.

Today, I want to discuss the TappAlpha Innovation 100 Growth & Daily Income ETF (TDAQ), how it operates, how it is likely to perform across various market environments, and why I believe the current backdrop makes it an attractive option for income-focused investors.

The Growing Demand For Income 💰

Over the past several years, investors have been focused on two dominant themes: inflation and artificial intelligence.

While the United States continues positioning itself as a global AI leader, inflation remains a persistent challenge for consumers. Recent CPI data showed inflation accelerating to 3.8%, moving further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, largely due to higher energy prices stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Although investors remain hopeful that inflation pressures will ease, I believe inflation is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Higher inflation has also pushed expectations for rate cuts further into the future, with some market participants even discussing the possibility of additional rate hikes.

Personally, I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again. Instead, I believe policymakers are more likely to keep rates elevated for longer, potentially into 2027.

Regardless of the Fed’s next move, the reality is that many consumers continue facing affordability challenges. Credit card balances remain elevated, borrowing costs remain high, and household budgets are increasingly stretched.

Simply put, investors are looking for more income.

That helps explain why derivative income ETFs have exploded in popularity over the past several years.

According to Bloomberg data, derivative-income ETFs have experienced significantly faster growth than traditional dividend ETFs since 2023. In my view, that’s not a coincidence.

Traditional dividend ETFs often provide yields in the 3%-4% range. While those yields can be attractive, many investors today are seeking substantially higher cash flow to offset inflation and rising living costs.

Covered call ETFs fill that gap, with many generating yields above 10%.

The challenge, however, is finding funds that can generate high income without destroying shareholder capital over time.

That’s where TDAQ stands out.

Understanding TDAQ 🧠

TDAQ launched on September 4, 2025, making it a relatively new entrant to the covered call ETF space.

Although some investors may view its short operating history as a negative, the fund’s early performance has been impressive—particularly when compared to more established competitors such as the JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) and the NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI).

One of the most unique aspects of TDAQ is its structure.

Unlike JEPQ and QQQI, which hold baskets of individual equities, TDAQ gains its exposure to the Nasdaq-100 indirectly.

Rather than directly owning dozens of technology stocks, TDAQ primarily utilizes Invesco’s Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQM) while generating income through a systematic zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options strategy.

By selling same-day options contracts, the fund harvests option premium while minimizing time exposure. This approach also provides management with greater flexibility to adjust positioning as market conditions change.

Additionally, TDAQ maintains exposure to U.S. Treasuries, creating another source of income while helping support liquidity and risk management.

The results so far have been encouraging.

Compared to JEPQ and QQQI, TDAQ has generated stronger price appreciation since launch. While JEPQ and QQQI have delivered respectable returns, TDAQ has consistently outperformed both on a price-return basis.

When distributions are included, the gap widens further.

Since inception, TDAQ has generated a total return approaching 26%, outperforming both peers despite its shorter track record.

While JEPQ offers the lowest expense ratio at 0.35%, TDAQ’s 0.68% expense ratio remains reasonable relative to many high-income strategies. In my view, any actively managed income fund charging less than 1% deserves consideration, provided management can consistently deliver results.

Investor interest appears to be growing as well.

During my previous coverage in December, TDAQ managed approximately $47 million in assets. Today, assets under management have climbed to roughly $198 million—an increase of more than 300% in just five months.

That rapid growth suggests investors are beginning to recognize the strategy’s potential.

Capital Preservation Matters 💵

One of the biggest risks with covered call investing is capital erosion.

Many income-focused investors become fixated on yield while ignoring the underlying asset value. A fund can pay a 15% yield, but if net asset value declines by 20%, investors are effectively moving backward.

This is one reason I pay close attention to NAV performance.

Since inception, TDAQ’s NAV has increased approximately 18.6%. Over the past year, NAV growth has exceeded 14%.

While the track record remains short, these results suggest the fund has thus far achieved what many covered call ETFs struggle to do: generate substantial income while preserving capital.

The distribution profile has also remained remarkably consistent.

Since launch, TDAQ has averaged approximately $0.38 per share in monthly distributions while maintaining stability despite varying market conditions.

Perhaps equally important is the tax treatment.

Nearly all distributions paid since inception have been classified as return of capital (ROC).

While return of capital is often misunderstood, it can be highly beneficial for taxable investors. ROC distributions generally defer taxes until shares are sold or cost basis reaches zero, making them attractive for investors seeking tax-efficient cash flow.

For younger investors building income portfolios in taxable accounts, this structure can be particularly appealing.

How TDAQ May Perform In Different Markets ↕️

Investors should understand that TDAQ is not designed to outperform the Nasdaq (NDAQ) during powerful bull markets.

Because the fund sells call options against its exposure, upside participation will always be somewhat capped.

If artificial intelligence continues driving technology stocks significantly higher, investors holding QQQM directly will likely outperform TDAQ.

In fact, we’re already seeing evidence of this.

QQQM currently holds a slight edge in total return as technology stocks continue benefiting from strong AI-related momentum.

However, the environment changes dramatically when markets become less cooperative.

During flat markets, volatile markets, or periods of stagflation, TDAQ’s option-selling strategy becomes increasingly valuable. Higher volatility generally leads to higher option premiums, creating additional income opportunities.

That income can help offset market weakness while providing investors with a meaningful cash flow stream.

If inflation remains stubborn and economic growth slows—a scenario many economists continue discussing—TDAQ appears particularly well positioned.

In those environments, investors often prioritize income generation and downside resilience over maximizing upside participation.

That’s exactly the type of environment where covered call strategies historically shine.

Bottom Line ✅

Covered call ETFs are not suitable for every investor.

They involve unique risks, including capped upside and potential NAV erosion during prolonged downturns. Investors should understand those tradeoffs before allocating capital.

That said, I believe TDAQ deserves consideration among the growing universe of covered call ETFs.

Its differentiated 0DTE strategy, indirect Nasdaq exposure, growing asset base, tax-efficient distributions, and strong early performance distinguish it from many competing products.

If you believe artificial intelligence will continue driving a powerful technology bull market for years to come, owning QQQM outright is probably the better choice.

However, if you believe inflation will remain elevated, volatility will increase, or market returns will moderate from recent highs, TDAQ appears well-positioned to deliver attractive risk-adjusted income.

For investors seeking a high-yield ETF capable of generating substantial cash flow while preserving capital, TDAQ is quickly becoming one of the more compelling funds in the covered call space.

Are you using covered call ETFs for income? Which ones do you like? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective.

We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Investors will face a jobs-heavy slate of economic data in the week ahead, with Friday’s May Employment Report likely serving as the most important market-moving event. Markets will be looking for additional evidence that the labor market continues to cool gradually without signaling a broader economic slowdown.

Labor Market In Focus 👷🏾

• May Nonfarm Payrolls expected: +95,000

• April Nonfarm Payrolls: +115,000

• Unemployment Rate expected to remain at 4.3%

• Average Hourly Earnings expected to cool to 3.6% YoY

Manufacturing Stabilization 🏭

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

• ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Both reports are expected to show modest improvement in May.

Services Sector Health Check 🌎

• S&P Global Services PMI

• ISM Services PMI

• Important gauge of activity within the largest segment of the U.S. economy.

Federal Reserve Commentary 🏦

Fed speakers scheduled throughout the week include:

• Christopher Waller

• Michael Barr

• Neel Kashkari

• Mary Daly

• Lorie Logan

Investors will also receive the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book, which provides a snapshot of economic conditions across the twelve Fed districts.

MONDAY:

Manufacturing PMI Reports

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

• ISM Manufacturing PMI

Both reports are expected to show slight improvement, potentially signaling stabilization in industrial activity after several months of softness.

Construction Spending

Investors will also monitor Construction Spending data, which has recently reflected:

• Weakness in residential construction

• Weakness in commercial real estate development

• Continued strength in data center construction driven by AI infrastructure spending

TUESDAY:

Labor Demand Update

Expected:

• JOLTS Job Openings: 6.800 million

• Previous: 6.866 million

A continued decline would suggest labor demand is gradually normalizing and could reinforce expectations for a slower hiring environment.

WEDNESDAY:

ADP Employment Report

Expected:

• Private Payroll Growth: +110,000

While often volatile, ADP provides an early look at labor-market conditions ahead of Friday’s official jobs report.

Services PMI Reports

• S&P Global Services PMI

• ISM Services PMI

These reports will provide insight into business activity, hiring trends, and pricing pressures within the services sector.

Fed Beige Book

The Beige Book will offer additional color on:

• Consumer spending

• Labor market conditions

• Business activity

• Inflation trends across the country

THURSDAY:

Weekly Jobless Claims

Expected:

• Initial Jobless Claims: 215,000

Markets will be watching for any signs that layoffs are beginning to accelerate.

Additional Reports

• Challenger Job Cuts

• Productivity Data

These reports may provide further clues regarding corporate hiring plans and cost-cutting efforts.

FRIDAY:

Nonfarm Payrolls

• Expected: +95,000

• Previous: +115,000

Unemployment Rate

• Expected: 4.3%

• Previous: 4.3%

Average Hourly Earnings

• Expected: 3.6% YoY

Why It Matters 🤷🏾‍♂️

Friday’s report will likely be the week’s most important release.

A softer-than-expected report could:

• Increase expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts

• Support interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as REITs and utilities

A stronger-than-expected report could:

• Reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance

• Push rate-cut expectations further into the future

• Put upward pressure on Treasury yields

Bottom Line ✅

The labor market remains the primary focus for investors. While manufacturing and services data will provide important insights into economic activity, Friday’s employment report will ultimately determine whether markets continue to price in a slowing economy, a resilient labor market, or a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations.

How do you think this week’s reports will affect the market? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

🧐 Happy Investing!

If you’re someone who looking to start investing and need help creating passive income to achieve financial freedom, check out our investment group iREIT+HOYA Capital over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET A FREE INVESTING GROUP TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

Since beginning my Substack journey on June 12th, 2025, I’ve shared a tremendous amount of value with readers - from economic updates and market commentary to in-depth analysis on many high quality dividend stocks & ETFs.

Plus, everyone has gotten access to a free Seeking Alpha article every week!

I’ve dedicated countless hours to researching companies, analyzing earnings reports, building portfolios, and creating content designed to help investors make better long-term decisions.

While I never started Dividend Collection Agency to make money, I’ve reached a point where I want to invest even more time and resources into delivering higher-quality research, deeper analysis, a stock research terminal, and exclusive content for readers who want to take their investing journey further with deeper insights that simply take more time to produce.

That’s why I’ll be introducing a paid subscription option.

The goal isn’t to put everything behind a paywall. Free content will continue to be a core part of what I do - you will still get access to notes, economic data of the week and one stock analysis a week.

Our goal at the Dividend Collection Agency is simple:

💰 Change the way you view money and change your life 💰

Paid Members Get Access To DCA Research Terminal

Going paid isn’t just about making money. It’s about providing readers with both the knowledge and the tools needed to become better investors.

With a paid subscription, you’ll continue receiving quality content you’re accustomed to, plus exclusive access to the DCA Stock Research Terminal, which is expected to launch in the coming weeks.

Below is an example of the tool using Netflix (NFLX). While NFLX currently doesn’t pay a dividend, the tool gives you access to research more than 5,000 stocks and ETFs in seconds!

The DCA research terminal provides investors with a stock’s:

• Company Sector

• Last Closing Price

• Market Cap

• P/E Ratio

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• Proprietary Valuation Ratings (Sell, Trim, Hold, Buy, Reasonable Buy, Good Buy, Strong Buy, Very Strong Buy, Ultra Value Buy)

I created this tool with one simple goal:

Help investors find quality businesses trading at attractive prices to build long-term wealth with confidence.

Instead of spending hours reading financial reports, listening to earnings calls, or watching YouTube videos to get investment advice, you can simply enter any stock’s ticker symbol you like and receive key information you need in seconds.

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You can even research popular ETFs like the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD):

Investing is easy. Buying quality businesses at attractive prices to build long-term wealth is the hard part! Let DCA help make investing easy for you!

More Tools Are Coming! 🤩

The DCA Research Terminal is just the beginning.

Over time, I plan to launch additional tools and resources that will be included in the paid membership to further help income investors build wealth and create passive income streams.

If you’re serious about creating passive income, building long-term wealth, and ultimately escaping the rat race, I believe the paid membership will provide tremendous value.

With flexible pricing options, it’s one of the most affordable investments you can make in your financial future.

But Why Would You Pay For The DCA Perspective?

• ✴️ 21+ years U.S. Navy (Retired)

• ✴️ Top 1% of Financial Experts (TipRanks)

• ✴️ 900+ articles published on Seeking Alpha

• ✴️ Lean Six Sigma Black Belt

• ✴️ Featured in Forbes Real Estate Investor (Nov 2024 issue)

• ✴️ Partner with iREIT+HOYA Capital (Seeking Alpha)

• ✴️ Check out my Seeking Alpha interview on Microsoft (MSFT)!

• ✴️ Check out interviews with Dapper Dividends on YouTube HERE & HERE!

📈 Happy Investing! 📉

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

And the platform allows writers to share one article once a week free of charge. So, I like to share them with all my current & future subscribers. (see below).

NVIDIA (NVDA), the world’s most valuable company with a market cap above $5 trillion, recently delivered a strong Q1 earnings. Revenue was a staggering 85%, while EPS grew 140% from the prior year.

While impressive, this wasn’t beyond my expectations for the technology behemoth. However, the company did something else that did surprise me.

In this week’s article of the week, I discuss why NVIDIA could join the list of high dividend growth companies going forward.

What do you think are the chances Nvidia increases the dividend steadily over the next or two? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $215.59

Dividend/Yield: $0.945/1.59%

Waste Management (WM), in my opinion, is one of the highest-quality businesses on the planet — and for good reason.

Despite another mixed earnings report that included a revenue miss, the company once again demonstrated the resilience investors have come to expect from this industry leader.

Even with softer volumes in one of its key segments, WM still delivered double-digit EBITDA growth and strong free cash flow expansion.

Looking ahead, management continues to expect approximately 29% free cash flow growth in 2026 based on previous guidance, which could support long-term share appreciation and continued dividend growth.

However, at a forward P/E approaching 27x, I believe valuation remains the primary near-term risk.

While Waste Management absolutely deserves to trade at a premium due to its dominant moat and recession-resistant business model, I currently see little margin of safety at today’s price.

In this article, I discuss Waste Management’s latest earnings, fundamentals, valuation, and why I continue to rate shares a hold despite the company’s exceptional quality.

Softer Volumes Led To Mixed Q1 Results 📊

Waste Management reported first-quarter earnings on April 29th, once again producing mixed results.

This time, however, the company managed to beat EPS expectations by $0.07.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.87, up from $1.67 during the prior year quarter. Net income increased 8.6% year-over-year to $731 million.

Revenue, however, missed estimates by approximately $60 million, totaling $6.23 billion.

Even so, top-line growth remained respectable, increasing 3.5% year-over-year despite a slowing economy and weaker volumes within their largest segment: Collection & Disposal.

Volumes within the segment declined 1.5% during the quarter.

Management attributed the weakness primarily to winter weather impacts and difficult comparisons from elevated wildfire-related activity during the prior year.

Despite lower volumes, Collection & Disposal operating EBITDA still increased 6.4%, although it was the slowest-growing segment during the quarter. Margins also expanded by 110 basis points.

Management noted during the earnings call that they expect volume trends to improve throughout the year due to seasonality and the lapping of lower-margin contract losses.

Outside of Collection & Disposal, results were stronger.

The Renewable Energy segment delivered the highest EBITDA growth, increasing 18% year-over-year.

Meanwhile, Healthcare Solutions posted 12% EBITDA growth.

Both segments also experienced margin expansion, improving 50 and 20 basis points respectively.

Overall, I would describe the quarter as solid.

The softer volumes likely explain part of the stock’s recent underperformance, but management believes the weakness is temporary rather than structural.

Strong Free Cash Flow Growth Continues 💵

One of the more encouraging developments for long-term dividend investors was the continued strength in free cash flow generation.

This follows approximately 27% free cash flow growth during 2025.

During Q1, free cash flow nearly doubled from $475 million to $920 million.

The primary driver was a 22% year-over-year decline in CAPEX spending.

Capital returns also remained aggressive.

Waste Management repurchased $344 million worth of shares during the quarter while returning approximately $730 million to shareholders in total.

Dividends accounted for just $385 million of that amount, leaving the payout ratio at a very conservative 42%.

This gives WM substantial flexibility to continue increasing shareholder returns while still investing in growth opportunities and strengthening the balance sheet.

For 2026, management still expects approximately $2 billion in share repurchases.

Balance Sheet Remains Healthy ⚖️

At the end of 2025, Waste Management’s leverage ratio increased to 3.1x — slightly above management’s long-term target range of 2.5x to 3.0x.

However, during Q1, leverage improved to 2.94x, bringing the company back within its targeted range.

For comparison:

• Waste Connections (WCN): 2.75x leverage

• Republic Services (RSG): 2.6x leverage

Although WM’s leverage remains somewhat elevated relative to peers, the company’s ability to deleverage while continuing aggressive shareholder returns is encouraging.

Long-term debt declined modestly to $22.2 billion compared to $22.8 billion during the prior-year quarter.

Short-term debt stood at just $641 million after management repaid over $1 billion in commercial paper debt that matured in March.

Importantly, upcoming debt maturities remain manageable, with September maturities carrying a weighted-average interest rate of just 2.6%.

Combined with strong retained cash flow and liquidity, Waste Management remains in an excellent position to pursue tuck-in acquisitions while continuing shareholder returns.

Premium Valuation Leaves Little Margin Of Safety 🤔

While Waste Management absolutely deserves to trade at a premium valuation, I believe the current multiple remains difficult to justify from a risk/reward perspective.

Over the last year, shares have declined approximately 6% after previously approaching a 52-week high near $250 per share.

At roughly 26.8x forward earnings, I believe investors are receiving very little margin of safety.

And while I still expect shares to trend higher over the long term due to strong free cash flow generation and consistent execution, I personally would prefer adding closer to the $190–$200 range.

Even the highest quality businesses bought at the wrong price can lead to potential underperformance.

If you’re looking for a stock analyzer tool that gives you future price targets based on historical data, use my code to get 25% off of FAST Graphs, my go-to the stock analyzer tool for research.

According to FAST Graphs, shares still appear overvalued even after the recent pullback, trading above their fair-value multiple of approximately 22.2x earnings.

Personally, I believe a fair valuation range for a company of WM’s quality is between 22x and 24x forward earnings.

Using a discounted cash flow model, I arrive at a similar conclusion.

Based on analyst estimates, WM is expected to grow earnings approximately 10.5% annually over the next five years.

To remain conservative, I assume:

• 8% long-term earnings growth thereafter

• A 12% required rate of return

• Long-term returns above the historical S&P 500 average

Using those assumptions, I arrive at an intrinsic value estimate of approximately $225 per share.

At the current price near $219, that leaves investors with less than 3% upside potential based on my estimates.

Risks ⚠️

Waste Management remains one of the premier businesses in the market today.

Its dominant moat, recurring revenue stream, and essential business model make it one of the more reliable long-term compounders available for dividend investors.

However, I believe that same quality has pushed valuation to levels that currently leave investors with little room for error.

As a result, valuation remains the biggest near-term risk in my opinion.

If the broader market experiences another sell-off, I believe Waste Management could easily see additional downside despite its strong fundamentals.

Bottom Line ✅

Long term, I fully expect shares to continue trending higher.

But over the near-to-medium term, I currently do not see a major catalyst capable of driving significant multiple expansion from current levels.

For investors seeking a more attractive risk/reward setup, I believe waiting for a 10%–20% pullback offers a much better opportunity.

Outside of valuation, I have very few complaints regarding the business itself.

Waste Management remains a premier company with excellent execution.

But for now, I continue to rate shares a hold.

Do you think Waste Management is currently overpriced? Where would you buy at? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $27.68

Exchange-traded funds have become increasingly popular with investors over the past decade — and for good reason.

For many investors, ETFs remove much of the guesswork from investing. Simply buying a quality fund consistently and holding it long term can be one of the easiest ways to build wealth over time.

Personally, I still prefer owning individual companies.

I enjoy analyzing financials, studying valuations, and attempting to identify businesses the market may be undervaluing.

Individual stocks also offer greater upside potential, particularly when quality companies fall out of favor and begin trading at compressed valuations.

That said, ETFs can outperform as well.

Investors with heavy exposure to Technology (XLK) or Energy (XLE) have likely outperformed significantly in recent years.

But with inflation beginning to reaccelerate and geopolitical uncertainty continuing to rise, I believe defensive positioning may become increasingly important moving forward.

And that brings me to the iShares Core High Dividend ETF (HDV).

In today’s environment, I think the iShares Core High Dividend ETF may be one of the more attractive defensive income ETFs investors should consider right now.

In this article, I discuss:

• HDV’s portfolio structure

• Why the ETF may hold up well during volatility

• Its long-term performance

• And which types of investors may benefit most from owning it

Defensive ETF Built Around Quality 🪖

HDV is one of BlackRock’s (BLK) older and more established dividend-focused ETFs, launching back in March of 2011.

Managed by BlackRock, HDV is often viewed as the sister fund to the more popular iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (DGRO).

The ETF tracks the Morningstar Dividend Yield Focus Index (MDYFT) and primarily invests in companies with above-average dividend yields, durable competitive advantages, and strong financial health.

Currently, HDV yields approximately 2.90%, nearly triple the dividend yield of the broader S&P 500 (SP500).

While some investors may dismiss that yield because it currently sits below inflation, I think that misses the bigger picture.

HDV is not designed to be a high-yield ETF.

It’s designed to be a defensive, quality-focused income ETF capable of preserving capital during difficult market environments.

And that distinction matters.

Unlike some dividend funds that chase yield at the expense of quality, HDV focuses heavily on mature blue-chip businesses with strong cash flows, wide moats, and recession-resistant business models.

Some of its largest holdings include:

• The Coca-Cola Company (KO)

• The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

• Texas Instruments (TXN)

• Exxon Mobil (XOM)

• Chevron (CVX)

• AbbVie (ABBV)

The portfolio also includes Dividend Kings and long-term dividend growers like:

• Altria (MO)

• PepsiCo (PEP)

• Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

Sector Exposure Matters 📊

One of the biggest reasons HDV stands out right now is its sector positioning.

Consumer Staples (XLP) is currently the ETF’s largest allocation, followed by Energy and Healthcare (XLV).

Technology exposure, meanwhile, sits around just 8%.

Under normal circumstances, that would likely be viewed negatively.

And honestly, it probably will limit upside during aggressive AI-driven rallies.

If artificial intelligence continues dominating market leadership, ETFs with significantly higher tech exposure will likely outperform HDV over time.

But that’s not really the purpose of this fund.

HDV is not built to aggressively outperform during euphoric bull markets.

It’s built to remain resilient during periods of:

• Rising inflation

• Elevated bond yields

• Economic uncertainty

• Geopolitical instability

• Market volatility

And right now, we’re experiencing all five.

Why HDV May Be Appealing Right Now 🤩

Inflation recently reaccelerated to 3.8%, reigniting fears that inflation may remain higher for longer than investors initially expected.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions involving Iran continue adding uncertainty to global markets, particularly energy markets.

Oil prices have risen sharply in recent months, increasing concerns that inflationary pressures could intensify once again.

If inflation remains elevated, Treasury yields could continue climbing, which would likely pressure equity valuations and increase volatility across the broader market.

That environment tends to favor:

• defensive sectors,

• cash-generating businesses,

• and lower-volatility portfolios.

Which is exactly where HDV fits in.

Another factor worth noting is the ETF’s downside resilience.

During last year’s sharp “Liberation Day” selloff, HDV experienced a smaller drawdown than several popular dividend ETF peers.

For example:

• Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) fell roughly 10.5%

• HDV declined less than 9%

That may not sound like a massive difference on paper, but smaller drawdowns can have a meaningful impact on long-term compounding and investor psychology.

Long-Term Performance Has Still Been Strong 💪🏾

Despite its defensive structure, HDV’s long-term returns have still been respectable.

Since inception, the ETF has generated annualized total returns close to 11%, while also providing qualified quarterly dividend income.

A hypothetical $10,000 investment at inception would now be worth roughly $46,000.

No, HDV has not been the top-performing dividend ETF over the last decade.

Funds like DGRO have outperformed thanks to heavier exposure to Technology and growth-oriented sectors.

But again, that comes back to understanding what HDV is designed to accomplish.

This is not a high-growth ETF.

It’s a quality-focused defensive income fund designed to:

• reduce volatility,

• preserve capital,

• and generate reliable income over time.

Who Should Own HDV? 🤷🏾‍♂️

In my opinion, HDV may be most attractive for investors who:

• already have substantial growth exposure,

• want additional defensive positioning,

• prioritize income stability,

• or are becoming increasingly concerned about macroeconomic risks.

I also think the fund makes sense for:

• retirees,

• conservative investors,

• income-focused portfolios,

• and investors seeking lower portfolio volatility.

One thing I personally like about HDV is its relatively concentrated structure.

The ETF holds only around 74 equities, allowing management to maintain meaningful exposure to its highest-conviction holdings instead of becoming overly diluted across hundreds of positions.

That concentration helps HDV feel more intentional compared to broader dividend funds.

Bottom Line ✅

The iShares Core High Dividend ETF appears increasingly attractive as inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty continue rising.

While the ETF will likely lag during aggressive technology-led rallies, I believe its defensive structure could allow it to outperform in a more volatile or risk-off market environment.

Going forward, I suspect investors may increasingly prioritize:

• capital preservation,

• reliable income,

• lower volatility,

• and defensive positioning.

And if that happens, HDV could become one of the more appealing dividend ETFs to own moving into 2026 and beyond.

For investors seeking stability rather than maximum upside, HDV may deserve a closer look.

How do you think HDV will do in the coming months if inflation worries continue? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

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Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $21.25

Dividend/Yield: $0.29/5.55%

Inflation has not been kind to many businesses, especially those heavily reliant on consumer spending and discretionary grocery purchases.

Due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and growing economic uncertainty, inflation concerns have resurfaced once again after April’s hotter-than-expected CPI report showed inflation rising to 3.8%.

As a result, consumers continue shifting toward value-oriented alternatives, benefiting retailers like Costco (COST) and Walmart (WMT) while pressuring branded food companies such as Hormel Foods (HRL).

That ongoing pressure is one of the biggest reasons Hormel continues struggling to regain momentum despite signs of stabilization beginning to emerge.

However, at a forward P/E of just 13.72x alongside a dividend yield nearing 6%, the risk/reward profile is becoming increasingly attractive for patient, long-term income investors willing to tolerate continued volatility.

In this article, I discuss Hormel’s latest earnings, expectations for their upcoming Q2 report, and why I continue to maintain a Hold rating despite the depressed valuation and elevated yield.

Portfolio Transition Showing Some Progress 📊

Although Hormel continues facing macro headwinds, there were some encouraging developments throughout 2025.

All three operating segments managed positive growth:

Segment Performance

• Retail: +1%

• Foodservice: +5%

• International: +1%

Foodservice remains the strongest-performing business currently, benefiting from resilient demand and pricing actions.

For the year:

• Organic sales growth totaled 2%

• Revenue increased to $12.1 billion

• EPS declined from $1.47 to $1.37

Unfortunately, profitability remains the core issue.

Margin Pressure Continues

• Cash from operations declined from $1.3B to $845M

• Operating income fell from $1.1B to $719M

• Adjusted operating margin compressed from 9.6% to 8.4%

Persistent inflation and elevated input costs continue weighing heavily on profitability despite revenue stabilization.

Q1 Earnings: Stabilization Emerging 🤔

During Q1 earnings in February, Hormel delivered:

Q1 Highlights

• 2% organic sales growth

• Fifth consecutive quarter of positive organic growth

• EPS of $0.34

• Strong Foodservice and International performance

Management credited much of the stabilization to their growing focus on protein-oriented products as consumer trends continue shifting toward high-protein diets and healthier food choices.

Segment Breakdown

Retail:

• Sales declined 2%

• Continued weakness from exiting non-core snack nut business

Foodservice:

• Sales grew 7%

International:

• Sales grew 8%

The Retail segment remains the primary concern moving forward, particularly as inflation pressures consumers toward lower-cost alternatives and private-label products.

Management’s Long-Term Strategy ♟

Hormel continues repositioning the portfolio toward:

• Protein-powered brands

• Higher-margin products

• Operational optimization

• Divestiture of lower-growth assets

One of the biggest strategic changes is the divestiture of the turkey business, which management expects will reduce annual revenue by roughly $50 million but have minimal earnings impact.

Long-term, management expects:

• 2%–3% annual sales growth

• 5%–7% operating income growth

While those growth rates are not overly exciting, they do suggest Hormel may finally be entering a more stable operating environment after several difficult years.

Dividend & Balance Sheet Remain Bright Spots 💵

Despite operational challenges, Hormel’s dividend remains relatively safe and well-covered.

Dividend Highlights

• Payout ratio: 57%

• Dividend Aristocrat status maintained

• Yield approaching 6%

Cash generation also remains adequate:

• Cash from operations: $349M

• Capital expenditures: $69M

• Dividends paid: $160M

The balance sheet remains healthy as well.

Balance Sheet Snapshot

• Long-term debt: $2.85B

• Cash & equivalents: $868M

• Minimal near-term debt maturities

Management continues prioritizing investment-grade credit quality, giving Hormel flexibility to continue restructuring operations while supporting dividend growth.

Don’t Expect Much From Q2

Hormel reports Q2 earnings on May 28th, and personally, I do not expect major improvement.

Management already guided for:

• Modest top-line growth

• Mostly flat profitability

Current analyst expectations call for:

• Slight EPS improvement

• Revenue decline to roughly $2.96B

My Expectations

• EPS: $0.34–$0.37

• Revenue: $3.0B–$3.06B

The two biggest things investors should monitor:

1. Margins

2. Retail segment stabilization

If inflation remains elevated, margins could continue compressing, which would likely pressure shares further.

Valuation Looks Attractive 📉

Using guidance midpoint EPS of $1.47, Hormel trades at a forward P/E of just 13.72x.

That remains well below its:

• 5-year average multiple of 21.62x

Even compared to peers like:

• Kraft Heinz (KHC)

• The Campbell’s Company (CPB)

Hormel still offers a respectable combination of:

• Defensive characteristics

• Dividend reliability

• Long-term brand strength

However, valuation alone is not enough to drive upside if margins continue deteriorating.

Why I’m Still Holding, Not Buying ⚠️

While the valuation and dividend are becoming increasingly attractive, I still believe near-term risks outweigh rewards.

Reasons For Caution

• Inflation remains elevated

• Consumer spending trends remain weak

• Retail segment stabilization is still uncertain

• Margins continue facing pressure

• Management growth expectations remain modest

Near-term, I expect shares to remain mostly range-bound until:

• Inflation moderates

• Margins improve sequentially

• Retail performance stabilizes

If margin recovery becomes more evident, I could eventually see shares moving toward the $22–$25 range over time.

But for now, patience is likely required.

Bottom Line ✅

From an income and valuation perspective, Hormel Foods is beginning to look increasingly attractive for long-term investors with higher risk tolerance.

The nearly 6% dividend yield, Dividend Aristocrat status, and depressed valuation all provide meaningful long-term upside potential if management successfully stabilizes margins and executes its portfolio transition.

However, inflationary pressures and changing consumer behavior will likely continue limiting profitability and growth over the near-to-medium term.

Is Hormel worth the 6% dividend? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

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Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective.

We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

The week ahead may be shortened by the Memorial Day holiday, but investors will still face a packed slate of economic data that could shape expectations for inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.

U.S. markets will remain closed MONDAY for Memorial Day before attention quickly shifts toward a heavy lineup of housing data, inflation reports, labor market updates, GDP revisions, and regional manufacturing activity.

The biggest report of the week arrives THURSDAY with the release of the PCE Inflation report — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

After recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, markets will be closely watching to see whether price pressures continue reaccelerating heading into the summer months.

Key Economic Reports 📄

TUESDAY – Housing Data 🏡

Housing remains a major area of focus as elevated mortgage rates continue pressuring affordability and buyer demand.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

• Expected: +1.0% YoY

FHFA House Price Index

• Expected: +1.6% YoY

• Previous: +1.7%

While home prices remain resilient, higher financing costs continue limiting transaction activity and weighing on housing momentum.

THURSDAY – Main Event: PCE Inflation + GDP Revision 🎪

Thursday brings the most important reports of the week.

PCE Inflation Report

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is expected to show inflation reaccelerating again in April.

Headline PCE

• Expected: 3.8%

• Previous: 3.5%

Core PCE

• Expected: 3.3%

• Previous: 3.2%

If inflation comes in hotter than expected once again, markets could further push out expectations for potential Fed rate cuts later this year.

Consumer Spending & Income 💵

Investors will also closely watch whether higher prices and elevated borrowing costs are beginning to pressure consumers.

Personal Income

• Expected: +0.4%

Personal Spending

• Expected: +0.5%

A slowdown in spending could reinforce concerns that consumers are gradually becoming more cautious amid persistent inflation and tighter financial conditions.

GDP Revision

We’ll also receive the first revision to Q1 GDP.

Q1 GDP (2nd Estimate)

• Expected: 2.0%

While economic growth remains solid overall, investors continue monitoring whether higher rates are beginning to slow broader economic activity.

New Home Sales 🏷️

Housing data continues THURSDAY with New Home Sales.

New Home Sales

• Expected: 660k

• Previous: 682k

Mortgage rates remain one of the largest headwinds facing the housing market, particularly as affordability conditions remain historically stretched.

Labor Market Updates 📰

Labor data will remain important throughout the week.

Initial Jobless Claims

• Expected: 212k

Continuing Claims

• Expected: 1.78M

The labor market has remained surprisingly resilient despite elevated interest rates, though investors continue searching for signs of softening employment conditions.

FRIDAY – Manufacturing & Energy 🔌

FRIDAY closes out the week with regional manufacturing activity and energy market data.

Chicago PMI

• Expected: 50.5

• Previous: Below 50

A move back above 50 would signal expansionary activity and could suggest improving manufacturing conditions.

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Energy investors will also monitor the weekly rig count for additional insight into domestic energy production trends.

Fed Speakers This Week 🗣️

Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, including:

• Logan

• Cook

• Jefferson

• Williams

• Goolsbee

• Bowman

These comments could provide additional clues ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting on June 17.

Bottom Line ✅

This may be a holiday-shortened week, but it could still carry significant implications for markets.

Inflation remains the market’s primary focus. Another hot PCE report could further pressure equities and reduce optimism surrounding near-term rate cuts.

At the same time, slowing spending, softer housing data, and rising jobless claims could reinforce concerns that elevated rates are beginning to weigh more heavily on the economy.

Markets continue balancing two competing narratives:

• Sticky inflation keeping rates higher for longer

• Slowing economic momentum increasing pressure for eventual policy easing

This week’s data could play a major role in determining which narrative gains momentum heading into June.

How do you think this week’s reports will affect the market? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

🧐 Happy Investing!

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And the platform allows writers to share one article once a week free of charge. So, I like to share them with all my current & future subscribers. (see below).

Inflation remains persistent and rose to 3.8% last month. Due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, oil & gas prices have skyrocketed, pushing inflation well-above the FED’s 2% target.

This makes dividend-paying stocks more attractive - especially those with higher yields. In this week’s article of the week, I give investors three REITs to help slay the inflation dragon.

Let me know what you think of the article in the comments!

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. I am not a licensed professional. Please do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $57.94

Dividend/Yield: $0.8975/6.4%

Year-to-date, the REIT (XLRE) sector has rallied roughly 10% as REITs continue recovering from one of the most difficult interest-rate environments in decades.

But despite the rally, I still believe there are select REIT opportunities offering attractive risk-adjusted upside potential for long-term income investors.

One name that continues standing out to me is Essential Properties Trust (EPR).

I downgraded EPR during my previous coverage, not because fundamentals were deteriorating, but because macroeconomic uncertainty combined with a strong share price rally reduced the margin of safety.

Today, I still believe EPR offers compelling long-term upside.

The company sports:

- A 6.4% dividend yield

- Roughly 6% projected AFFO growth

- A discounted valuation near 10.7x forward P/AFFO

- A well-covered monthly dividend

- Potential multiple expansion over the next 2–3 years

However, despite the attractive setup, I continue to reiterate shares at a hold rating due to persistent macro risks and the potential for better buying opportunities ahead.

Strong Quarter Continues Momentum 🏃🏾

EPR Properties delivered a strong Q1 report that helped reinforce the long-term investment thesis.

The company reported AFFO of $1.29 per share, beating expectations by $0.04. Revenue also came in ahead of estimates at approximately $181 million.

AFFO grew roughly 6% year-over-year while revenue increased 3.6%, supported by:

- Embedded rent escalators

- Higher investment spending

- Gains on real estate transactions

- Lower credit losses

Management also significantly accelerated investment activity during the quarter.

EPR invested $51.3 million and completed the previously announced acquisition with Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) involving seven experiential properties totaling approximately $315 million.

Importantly, this continues EPR’s transition away from theaters and toward broader experiential real estate categories.

That portfolio transition remains one of the most important aspects of the long-term bullish thesis.

Historically, the market has assigned EPR a discounted valuation due to concerns surrounding theater concentration and consumer discretionary exposure.

But as management continues diversifying into attractions, eat-and-play concepts, hospitality, and other experiential assets, I believe the market could gradually reward shares with a higher valuation multiple.

Raised Guidance Reinforces Confidence ↗️

One of the more encouraging developments from the quarter was management’s decision to raise guidance across several key areas.

EPR increased:

- AFFO guidance

- Investment guidance

- Disposition guidance

Management now expects approximately 6% AFFO growth, an increase from prior expectations closer to 4%–5%.

Investment guidance also increased substantially to a range of $500 million–$600 million, signaling management sees attractive opportunities despite the uncertain backdrop.

This is notable because it represents the highest level of activity the company has seen since the pandemic period.

In my opinion, this positions EPR well if interest rates continue trending lower over the next 6–12 months.

Lower financing costs combined with improving capital market conditions could allow experiential REITs like EPR to accelerate growth once again.

Dividend Remains Attractive 💵

One of the primary reasons income-focused investors continue gravitating toward EPR is the monthly dividend.

At current prices, shares yield approximately 6.4%, which remains attractive relative to many peers and fixed-income alternatives.

More importantly, the dividend remains well covered.

Using the midpoint of guidance, EPR’s AFFO payout ratio remains around 68%–70%, leaving a reasonable margin of safety.

The balance sheet also remains solid:

- Net leverage decreased to 4.8x

- Liquidity remains strong

- Over $1 billion remains available on the revolver

- Debt maturities remain manageable

While EPR doesn’t possess the same balance sheet strength as premium REITs like Agree Realty (ADC) or Realty Income (O), I still view the overall financial position as healthy.

Why I Believe Shares Could Re-Rate Higher 📉

From a valuation perspective, EPR still appears attractive.

Shares currently trade near 10.7x forward P/AFFO, well below many net lease and experiential REIT peers.

I don’t necessarily believe EPR deserves the same premium valuation as Realty Income or Agree Realty.

However, I do believe the current discount is excessive.

If management continues successfully diversifying the portfolio and maintaining steady growth, I think the market could eventually assign EPR an 11x–12x multiple over the medium term.

That alone could support a share price closer to their high price target of $66 from Wall Street over the next few years.

When combining:

- Potential valuation expansion

- A 6.4% yield

- Mid-single-digit AFFO growth

Investors could realistically see low-double-digit total return potential even without aggressive multiple expansion.

That’s a compelling setup for long-term income-oriented investors.

Why I Remain Cautious ⚠️

Despite the attractive long-term setup, I still believe caution is warranted.

My primary concern remains the macroeconomic environment.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues creating inflationary risks, particularly through higher oil and energy prices.

If oil prices continue climbing, consumers could eventually begin pulling back discretionary spending.

That matters for EPR because experiential spending remains highly dependent on consumer confidence and disposable income.

Management highlighted healthy trends during the quarter, including:

- Strong box office performance

- Higher attendance trends

- Continued experiential spending growth

But these trends could weaken if inflation reaccelerates later this year.

And if consumer spending slows, EPR’s experiential-focused portfolio could experience temporary pressure.

This is why I continue preferring patience here despite the attractive yield and valuation.

Bottom Line ✅

Overall, I continue believing EPR Properties offers an attractive long-term investment case for income-oriented investors.

The combination of:

- A 6.4% dividend yield

- 6% projected AFFO growth

- Potential valuation expansion

- A transitioning portfolio

- A monthly dividend

makes the stock compelling over the long term.

However, macro uncertainty and inflation risks still create downside volatility potential in the near term.

For that reason, I continue preferring shares closer to the low-$50 range where investors can build a larger margin of safety and potentially enhance long-term total return potential.

For now, I reiterate shares at a hold.

Do you think EPR is a buy here or would you wait for a further pullback? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $280.80

Dividend/Yield: $1.86/2.57%

McDonald’s (MCD) has struggled in recent months, with shares down roughly 11% over the past year as affordability pressures, tariffs, and slower consumer spending weighed on sentiment.

Despite the near-term volatility, I believe the long-term investment thesis remains attractive.

The future Dividend King continues to generate resilient cash flow, maintain strong global brand dominance, and aggressively expand its footprint.

While growth has slowed from the double-digit pace seen in prior years, the recent pullback has improved valuation and created what I believe is a compelling long-term entry point for dividend growth investors.

Trading around 20x earnings — below its five-year average — MCD now offers a more attractive risk/reward profile with potential for shares to trend toward $400 over the next 12 to 24 months if macro conditions improve.

Slowing Growth Has Weighed On Shares 🏋🏾

McDonald’s saw growth decelerate notably in 2025 compared to the strong post-pandemic recovery years.

While results remained solid overall, the business experienced:

• Margin pressures from rising beef costs

• Tariff-related headwinds

• Softer discretionary consumer spending

• Slower restaurant traffic globally

The Middle East conflict and rising oil prices also pressured sentiment throughout 2026, creating additional uncertainty for global consumer businesses.

Still, McDonald’s delivered respectable full-year results:

• Global comparable sales rose 3.8%

• U.S. comparable sales increased 3.9%

• International markets also grew 3.9%

• Systemwide sales rose 6% to $139.4 billion

• Operating margins expanded to 46.1%

That performance was a meaningful improvement from the prior year, when several international markets experienced declining sales growth.

The reality is simple: higher inflation has pressured lower-income consumers, particularly in quick-service restaurants. But management appears focused on adapting quickly.

Affordability Initiatives And Growth Expansion ↗️

McDonald’s is aggressively leaning into affordability initiatives while simultaneously accelerating long-term growth investments.

The company launched its revamped McValue platform to drive traffic and improve value perception among consumers facing tighter budgets.

Early results appear encouraging.

During the latest quarter:

• Revenue beat expectations at $6.52 billion

• EPS came in at $2.83

• Net income rose 6%

• Global systemwide sales increased 6%

The quarter represented a notable rebound after the previous year’s softer performance.

Management also continues to invest heavily in expansion:

• 2,275 new stores opened in 2025

• 2,600 openings projected for 2026

• Long-term target of 50,000 stores globally by next year

Capex is projected to rise toward $3.9 billion as the company accelerates development initiatives.

I believe this is one of the most important parts of the investment thesis.

McDonald’s remains one of the few restaurant companies with the scale, brand power, and balance sheet to continue expanding aggressively despite macro uncertainty.

The company also recently launched new refreshers and beverage initiatives designed to compete more directly with Starbucks and attract younger consumers.

Dividend Safety Remains Strong 💵

McDonald’s is on the verge of becoming a Dividend King, with 49 consecutive years of dividend increases.

While dividend growth has slowed from roughly 10% annually to closer to 5%, the payout still appears extremely safe.

Key dividend metrics remain solid:

• Free cash flow payout ratio around 71%

• 2025 free cash flow totaled $7.2 billion

• Shareholder returns reached $7.1 billion

• Quarterly free cash flow covered dividends comfortably

The balance sheet remains manageable as well:

• Long-term debt sits near $40 billion

• Liquidity remains strong at roughly $1.2 billion

Debt has risen in recent years, but relative to McDonald’s scale and cash generation, I don’t view the current leverage as alarming.

Management also continues to buy back shares aggressively, repurchasing roughly $2 billion worth in 2025 alone.

Valuation And Long-Term Upside 📉

At roughly 20x earnings, McDonald’s now trades below its historical valuation average despite maintaining:

• Strong profitability

• Global scale

• Reliable cash flow

• Dividend growth

• Expansion opportunities

Compared to peers like Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), the valuation appears increasingly attractive for conservative dividend growth investors.

I do not expect explosive market-beating returns from McDonald’s given the maturity of the business.

If you’re looking for a stock analyzer tool that gives you future price targets based on historical data, use my code to get 25% off of FAST Graphs, my go-to the stock analyzer tool for research.

However, I believe the current pullback creates a compelling setup for:

• Steady long-term appreciation

• Reliable dividend growth

• Potential multiple expansion

• Improved investor sentiment if inflation moderates

Should consumer spending stabilize and geopolitical tensions ease, shares could reasonably re-rate higher over the next one to two years.

Risks To Watch ⚠️

Near-term risks remain elevated.

The biggest concerns include:

• Continued inflationary pressure

• Higher beef costs

• Tariff uncertainty

• Weak consumer sentiment

• Ongoing geopolitical tensions

If margins continue compressing, shares could potentially retest lows near the $260 range before stabilizing.

That said, further downside would likely improve the long-term investment opportunity for patient investors focused on dividend growth and income compounding.

Bottom Line ✅

McDonald’s remains one of the highest-quality restaurant businesses in the world.

While growth has slowed and macro pressures continue weighing on performance, the company’s:

• Global scale

• Franchise model

• Dividend safety

• Strong cash generation

• Aggressive store expansion

…all support the long-term investment thesis.

I still rate shares a buy for long-term dividend growth investors, although I believe some near-term volatility is likely to persist until consumer conditions improve further.

Do you think McDonald’s aggressive store openings will accelerate growth? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $29.83

Dividend Yield: 0.51%

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.”

Most investors are familiar with this famous quote from Warren Buffett, highlighting the importance of understanding the difference between a stock’s share price and its intrinsic value.

In my opinion, this is one of the hardest parts of investing.

Finding quality businesses is usually the easy part. The difficult part is finding them at attractive valuations.

And in today’s market, where ETFs continue growing in popularity, the space has become increasingly crowded. Funds need something unique to stand out.

That’s where Capital Group’s U.S. Large Value ETF (CGVV) becomes interesting.

Although the fund is still very new, its growth characteristics and differentiated approach make it one worth keeping on investors’ watchlists — especially for those looking to rotate away from expensive mega-cap growth and toward quality value opportunities.

Who Is CGVV? 🤔

CGVV officially launched on June 24, 2025, giving it less than a year of public trading history.

Because of this, some investors may immediately dismiss it due to:

• Limited performance data

• Smaller asset size

• Lack of a proven long-term track record

Currently, the fund manages roughly $131 million in assets and carries a reasonable expense ratio of 0.33%.

What makes the fund stand out, however, is its active multi-manager structure.

CGVV currently utilizes three portfolio managers, two of whom also help manage Capital Group’s highly popular Dividend Value ETF, CGDV.

That matters because CGDV has quietly become one of the more impressive actively managed dividend ETFs since launching in 2022.

In fact, CGDV has become a core holding in my own portfolio due to its combination of:

• Dividend growth

• Quality holdings

• Strong total return performance

While I usually prefer waiting at least a year before seriously evaluating newer ETFs, I don’t view that as a hard rule if the underlying strategy looks compelling.

And so far, CGVV’s strategy looks attractive.

A Concentrated Value Strategy With Growth Characteristics 📊

Unlike CGDV, which benchmarks against the S&P 500, CGVV tracks the Russell 1000 Value Index.

Its primary objective is straightforward:

Invest in undervalued U.S. companies capable of delivering long-term capital appreciation.

What I like most is that CGVV isn’t simply buying “cheap stocks.”

Management appears focused on:

• High-quality businesses

• Strong fundamentals

• Attractive valuations

• Long-term growth potential

Another major positive is the portfolio concentration.

Currently, the ETF holds only 66 companies.

Personally, I prefer more concentrated ETFs because excessive diversification can dilute performance potential. The same philosophy applies to my individual stock portfolio, where I typically prefer holding between 10 and 25 positions.

Some of CGVV’s top holdings include:

• Amazon (AMZN)

• Starbucks (SBUX)

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

• Meta Platforms (META)

• Altria Group (MO)

• VICI Properties (VICI)

The sector exposure also gives the portfolio a balanced blend of value and growth:

• Financials: 19%

• Industrials: 17%

• Technology: 13%

That growth tilt is one reason I find the fund particularly attractive.

Strong Early Performance 💪🏾

Although CGVV’s history is short, the early results have been impressive.

Year-to-date:

• CGVV: +13%

• Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF (VOO): +6%

Of course, part of VOO’s recent weakness has been tied to:

• Technology (XLK) sector volatility

• Middle East geopolitical tensions

• A temporary pullback in mega-cap growth stocks

Still, CGVV outperforming such a dominant benchmark early on is notable.

When compared against value ETF peers, CGVV has also held up well against:

• Vanguard Value Fund Index ETF (VTV)

• iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE)

• Schwab Large-Cap Value ETF (SCHV)

That’s impressive considering those funds:

• Manage significantly larger asset bases

• Have decades-long track records

• Operate at massive scale

One Weakness: Income Investors May Be Disappointed 👎🏾

The biggest drawback with CGVV is its low yield.

Unlike many traditional value ETFs, CGVV:

• Pays distributions semi-annually

• Yields less than 1%

• Focuses primarily on capital appreciation

Because of this, I view CGVV more as a growth-oriented value ETF rather than an income vehicle.

That makes it better suited for:

• Long-term growth investors

• Retirement portfolios

• Investors seeking capital appreciation over immediate income

For income-focused investors, CGDV may remain the more attractive choice.

Expected Long-Term Returns 📉

Looking at comparable value ETFs:

• IVE delivered ~10% annualized price returns over 5 years

• VTV delivered ~9.6%

• SCHV delivered ~8.6%

That averages roughly 9.4% annualized price appreciation.

Given CGVV’s:

• Concentrated structure

• Active management

• Growth tilt

• Multi-manager strategy

…I believe the fund could potentially generate:

• 9–10% annualized price returns

• 12–15% total returns including distributions over time

Of course, future performance is never guaranteed.

But the setup here looks compelling.

Bottom Line ✅

CGVV may still be young, but the ETF has already shown signs of differentiation in a crowded ETF market.

Its:

• Concentrated portfolio

• Active management

• Growth-oriented value approach

• Quality

…make it a compelling ETF worth monitoring closely.

I especially like that the fund blends traditional value with select growth-oriented companies like Amazon and Meta instead of leaning entirely defensive.

While I’d still like to see how the fund performs during a prolonged bear market, the strategy appears promising.

If you’re looking for:

• Active management

• A value tilt

• Growth potential

• Long-term capital appreciation

…then CGVV deserves a spot on your watchlist.

Do you think CGVV deserves a spot on your watchlist? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective.

We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

🏡 Housing Takes Center Stage

Investors will get a busy slate of economic data in the week ahead, led by housing, regional PMI reports, consumer sentiment, and the latest Fed meeting minutes.

Key Data To Watch 👀

MONDAY
NAHB Housing Market Index Expected: 34

Homebuilder confidence remains weak as mortgage rates continue pressuring affordability.

TUESDAY
Pending Home Sales Expected: +0.1%

A small gain would suggest housing transaction activity remains sluggish.

THURSDAY
Housing Starts Expected: 1.410M Prior: 1.502M

Building Permits Expected: 1.380M Prior: 1.363M

Jobless Claims Expected: 210k

Continuing Claims Expected: 1.785M

S&P Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI are both expected to soften modestly.

FRIDAY
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected: 48.2

1-Year Inflation Expectations Expected: 4.5%

Bottom Line ✅

Housing affordability, consumer confidence, and inflation expectations remain key areas to watch as investors look for signs of whether the economy is slowing or stabilizing.

How do you think this week’s reports will affect the market? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

🧐 Happy Investing!

If you’re someone who looking to start investing and need help creating passive income to achieve financial freedom, check out our investment group iREIT+HOYA Capital over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET A FREE INVESTING GROUP TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

And the platform allows writers to share one article once a week free of charge. So, I like to share them with all my current & future subscribers. (see below).

Premier businesses usually trade at expensive valuations for a reason. But sometimes the market can be irrational and end up giving investors a nice sale.

In the past year Mastercard (MA) has faced a slew of headwinds even though their fundamentals remain as strong as ever.

In this week’s article of the week I discuss why their recent volatility is a massive buying opportunity for long-term dividend growth investors.

Let me know what you think of the article in the comments!

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. I am not a licensed professional. Please do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $2.35

Dividend/Yield: 17.9%

I’m naturally someone who tries to find the good in any situation, even when it comes to investing during periods of elevated volatility.

But when a stock consistently experiences heavy downside pressure, there’s usually a reason beneath the surface.

In the case of Prospect Capital Corporation (PSEC), a Business Development Company (“BDC”) I’ve remained bearish on for close to a year, the steep discount to NAV and double-digit yield may initially appear attractive.

However, beneath the surface, deteriorating fundamentals, shrinking income generation, declining NAV, and a recent dividend reduction suggest the pain likely isn’t over.

In this article, I discuss Prospect Capital’s latest earnings, what caused the post-earnings sell-off, and why I continue to expect underperformance moving forward.

Another “PSEC-Like” Quarter 📊

Often times when I say a company delivered “another similar quarter,” it usually means consistency and stability.

But in the case of Prospect Capital, this meant another quarter of financial deterioration.

While Net Investment Income (“NII”) technically beat analyst estimates by $0.05 per share, it still declined sequentially from the prior quarter’s $0.19.

More importantly, total NII dollars continued falling sharply.

Key Weaknesses From Q3:

• Net investment income declined 14.3% sequentially

• Total investment income missed estimates by roughly $13 million

• Revenue declined from $170.7 million to $150.1 million year-over-year

• Portfolio value continued shrinking

• NAV declined sequentially and year-over-year

One thing many investors overlook with BDCs is that deterioration can often be hidden beneath the dividend yield.

Investors may focus heavily on:

• Dividend yield

• Discount to NAV

• NII per share

But sometimes ignore:

• Shrinking portfolio value

• Declining earnings power

• Deteriorating asset quality

• Falling total income generation

That’s exactly why I describe this as another “PSEC-like” quarter.

Continued Portfolio Shift 📝

Another major contributor to Prospect Capital’s earnings pressure is the company’s ongoing portfolio repositioning strategy.

Management continues reducing real estate exposure while increasing allocation toward first-lien loans in an effort to improve credit quality and stabilize the portfolio long-term.

Over the past two years:

• First-lien exposure increased from 59% to 72%

• Real estate exposure continued declining

• Portfolio company count fell from 122 to 89

From a risk management perspective, this shift makes sense.

First-lien loans generally:

• Offer stronger downside protection

• Sit higher in the capital structure

• Reduce overall credit risk

However, repositioning the portfolio comes at a cost.

Asset sales and restructuring activity continue pressuring earnings, and I believe this trend likely persists for at least the next several quarters.

Additional Concerns:

• Total portfolio value declined from $7.8B to $6.3B

• Real estate still accounts for 14% of investments

• Earnings accretion from repositioning could take years

So, while management is making defensive adjustments, investors are still dealing with weakening financial performance today.

NAV Erosion Remains A Massive Red Flag 🚩

One of the most concerning aspects of Prospect Capital’s quarter was continued NAV deterioration.

NAV declined:

• From $6.21 to $6.05 sequentially

• From $8.99 to $6.05 year-over-year

That’s an enormous decline for a BDC. And when compared to peers, Prospect Capital’s underperformance becomes even more apparent.

Peer NAV Comparisons:

• TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG): NAV increased slightly

• PennantPark Investment Corporation (PNNT): Moderate NAV decline

• Barings BDC, Inc. (BBDC): Relatively stable NAV

Meanwhile, PSEC experienced severe erosion.

For BDCs, NAV stability and growth are critical indicators of long-term health.

Persistent NAV destruction often signals:

• Weak underwriting

• Poor credit performance

• Deteriorating portfolio quality

• Increased risk of long-term capital loss

And unfortunately, that’s exactly what investors continue seeing with PSEC.

The “Sneaky” Dividend Cut ✂️

Another major negative from the quarter was the dividend reduction.

Management quietly reduced the monthly dividend from $0.04 to $0.035 per share.

While a penny may not seem significant, dividend cuts for BDCs often carry psychological importance.

They signal:

• Weak dividend coverage

• Reduced earnings power

• Pressure on future distributions

• Lower investor confidence

This was something I warned about previously. And frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another dividend reduction sometime later this year if earnings continue trending lower.

The combination of:

• Falling NII

• Declining portfolio value

• Weak coverage ratios

• NAV erosion

All of this creates a difficult setup for sustaining current payouts long-term.

The Huge Discount To NAV Isn’t Enough 🏷️

At first glance, a 59% discount to NAV and double-digit yield looks incredibly attractive.

But sometimes steep discounts exist for a reason.

In my opinion, PSEC’s discount reflects:

• Weak investor confidence

• Persistent financial deterioration

• Concerns over future dividend cuts

• Lack of growth catalysts

At current levels, I don’t see any meaningful catalyst capable of driving sustained upside. Moreover, Wall Street rates them a strong sell.

Instead, I believe shares are likely to:

• Trade rangebound

• Continue underperforming peers

• Potentially make new 52-week lows

I think this continues until financial performance stabilizes.

There Are Some Positives 👍🏾

To be fair, Prospect Capital does still have some strengths.

Positives:

• Very low leverage compared to peers

• Strong liquidity profile

• Low non-accrual rates

• Reduced exposure to riskier sectors like Software

• Portfolio becoming more defensive

Leverage stood at just 0.38x, well below many peers.

The company also maintains:

• $1.8B in undrawn revolver capacity

• $4.6B in total liquidity

Those metrics help reduce immediate balance sheet risk.

However, balance sheet strength alone isn’t enough to offset declining earnings and NAV deterioration.

Risks & Bottom Line ✅

Prospect Capital’s latest quarter further strengthens my bearish thesis.

While the:

• Double-digit yield

• Deep discount to NAV

• Defensive portfolio repositioning

all may look attractive on the surface; the ongoing financial deterioration remains difficult to ignore.

Could the strategic shift eventually improve performance? Possibly.

But I don’t expect meaningful earnings accretion or financial stabilization for at least another year or two.

And until investors see:

• Stable NAV

• Improved dividend coverage

• Stronger income generation

• Consistent financial execution

I believe the stock remains a high-risk value trap.

For now, I continue reiterating PSEC as a sell.

Would you consider PSEC for the short term to capture the dividend? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $412.66

Dividend/Yield: $0.91/0.84%

Those that follow me know that I rarely talk about the large, popular Technology (XLK) names that dominate headlines and Wall Street coverage.

Instead, I typically prioritize high-quality, income-oriented investments. Businesses with strong balance sheets, conservative payout ratios, durable cash flows, and models capable of producing reliable income for years to come.

Historically, most of my technology exposure has come through ETFs rather than individual stocks.

But seeing the recent weakness in Microsoft’s (MSFT) share price, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore what looks like one of the most compelling dividend growth opportunities in the market today.

At a forward P/E of roughly 24.4x at the time of writing — well below the company’s 5-year average valuation — Microsoft appears attractively priced despite remaining one of the strongest and most dominant businesses globally.

And when you combine:

• A fortress AAA-rated balance sheet

• Massive and growing cash flows

• Double-digit dividend growth

• Aggressive AI investment

• And a historically rare valuation discount

…it starts to look like a setup long-term investors shouldn’t ignore.

The stock is down double-digits over the past six months and year-to-date, which naturally raises concerns.

But in my view, the weakness has far more to do with short-term sentiment surrounding elevated CAPEX spending rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

In this article, I discuss Microsoft’s latest earnings, why investors are concerned, and why I believe long-term dividend investors should ignore the short-term noise as I see significant upside potential in 2027 and beyond.

What’s Going On With Microsoft?🤔

At the time of writing:

• MSFT is down roughly 15% year-to-date

• Down nearly 19% over the past 6 months

• And slightly negative over the last year

That’s surprising considering Microsoft remains one of the most profitable and influential businesses on earth.

Their ecosystem is enormous and includes:

• Azure

• Windows

• LinkedIn

• Xbox

• Bing

• Microsoft 365 Copilot

• Enterprise cloud infrastructure

The company operates across three major segments:

1. Productivity & Business Processes

2. Intelligent Cloud

3. More Personal Computing

So, why the weakness? In my opinion, the answer is simple:

Elevated CAPEX Spending 💵

Microsoft is spending aggressively to position itself as a long-term AI leader.

And while those investments pressure margins and free cash flow in the short term, I believe they significantly strengthen the long-term growth story.

The market, however, appears hyper-focused on the near-term impact.

Latest Earnings: Actually Strong 💪🏾

Despite investor concerns, Microsoft’s latest quarter was solid overall.

Q3 Highlights:

• EPS: $4.27 (beat by $0.22)

• Revenue: $82.8B (beat by $1.46B)

• Revenue growth: +18% YoY

• Operating income growth: +20%

• Net income growth: +20%

• Azure growth: +40%

Cloud continues to be the company’s primary growth engine.

On the surface, Microsoft’s performance still looks like “business as usual.”

But investors weren’t impressed.

The reason? Margin pressure and concerns surrounding aggressive spending.

The Consumer Segment Is The Weak Spot 💾

The biggest area of concern remains Microsoft’s Personal Computing business.

Segment Weakness:

• Personal Computing revenue: -1%

• Xbox revenue: -5%

• Xbox hardware revenue: -33%

• Windows & OEM Devices: -2%

Compared to last year’s growth, these declines understandably worried investors.

Management acknowledged the weakness and noted they’re working to improve engagement and streamline the Windows ecosystem.

In my opinion, inflation and weaker consumer demand are playing a role here.

I do expect modest improvements eventually — particularly if inflation moderates — but investors probably shouldn’t expect a rapid turnaround over the next few quarters.

CAPEX Is The Real Story 📖

This is where most of the bearish narrative currently comes from.

Microsoft increased quarterly CAPEX from:

• $21.4B → $31.9B year-over-year

And total AI-related investments are expected to ramp substantially further.

That spending is temporarily pressuring:

• Margins

• Free cash flow

• Investor sentiment

But importantly:

The Core Business Is Still Strengthening ↗️

Cash from operations actually increased 26% during the quarter.

That’s a critical distinction. The business itself is generating MORE cash.

Free cash flow weakness is primarily the result of aggressive long-term investment — not deteriorating fundamentals.

Dividend Safety Remains Extremely Strong 💰

Even with elevated spending, Microsoft’s dividend remains exceptionally safe.

Dividend & Cash Flow Highlights:

• Free cash flow: $15.8B

• Shareholder returns: $10.2B

• Share buybacks: $3.4B

• Payout ratio: ~43%

• Fiscal 2025 payout ratio: ~34%

That’s still extremely conservative for a mature mega-cap company.

While dividend growth could slow modestly during this investment cycle, Microsoft has increased its dividend at a CAGR above 10% over the last five years.

And I still expect another healthy increase for 2026.

One Of The Strongest Balance Sheets In The World ⚖️

Microsoft’s balance sheet remains pristine.

Balance Sheet Snapshot:

• AAA-rated credit

• No short-term debt

• $31.4B long-term debt

• $32.1B cash & equivalents

For a company worth nearly $4 trillion, that debt load is incredibly manageable.

This financial strength gives Microsoft enormous flexibility to:

• Continue investing aggressively

• Maintain dividend growth

• Repurchase shares

• Weather economic volatility

Valuation Is Attractive Again 🤩

This is where Microsoft becomes especially interesting.

At a forward P/E of roughly 24.4x:

• MSFT trades well below its 5-year average multiple of ~31x

• PEG ratio also looks attractive historically

• Sentiment has weakened significantly

In my view, the market is discounting the stock primarily because of near-term CAPEX fears.

But long-term investors may eventually look back at this period as a rare opportunity to accumulate shares at a discount.

Personally, I’m interested in adding below $400.

If you’re looking for a stock analyzer tool that gives you future price targets based on historical data, use my code to get 25% off of FAST Graphs, my go-to the stock analyzer tool for research.

Risks To Consider ⚠️

Of course, Microsoft isn’t without risks.

Key Near-Term Risks:

• Continued weakness in Personal Computing

• Margin pressure from elevated CAPEX

• Slower free cash flow growth

• Potential for additional volatility

These risks could absolutely keep pressure on shares over the near-to-medium term.

But I believe the market is focusing too heavily on short-term noise while overlooking the long-term setup.

Bottom Line ✅

Microsoft’s biggest issue today is sentiment — not fundamentals.

The company remains:

• Financially elite

• Highly profitable

• Deeply embedded into global enterprise infrastructure

• And aggressively positioning itself for the AI era

Meanwhile:

• The dividend remains extremely safe

• The balance sheet is pristine

• Cash flows continue growing

• And valuation has become much more attractive

For long-term dividend growth investors willing to look beyond temporary volatility, Microsoft appears to offer a compelling setup heading into 2027 and beyond.

Do you own Microsoft? What do you think of their recent CAPEX spending? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective.

We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

We’ll see another busy slate of economic data in the week ahead, headlined by several closely watched inflation reports that could help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

The main event comes TUESDAY with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to show a notable reacceleration in headline inflation following the recent surge in global oil prices.

Key Inflation Expectations ⬆️

• Headline CPI: Expected at 3.7% YoY, up from 3.3% last month

• Recent CPI Low: February’s 2.4% reading marked the slowest pace in nearly five years

• Core CPI: Expected to hold near 2.7%

• Investors will watch closely for signs higher energy costs are spreading into broader goods and services prices

On WEDNESDAY, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show a similar oil-fueled jump in wholesale inflation pressures.

PPI Expectations 📊

• Headline PPI: Expected to rise to 4.8% YoY

• Would mark the highest level since early 2023

• Core PPI: Expected at 4.3% YoY

• Could represent a three-year high in underlying wholesale inflation

Housing data will also remain in focus throughout the week.

Housing Market Watch 🏡

• Existing Home Sales (MONDAY) expected to remain near three-decade lows

• Elevated mortgage rates continue pressuring affordability and transaction activity

• Housing remains one of the most rate-sensitive areas of the economy

On THURSDAY, investors will get another major read on the health of the U.S. consumer via Retail Sales data.

Additional Economic Data To Watch 👀

• Retail Sales (THURSDAY): Key test of consumer resilience

• ADP Employment Change (TUESDAY): Fresh look at hiring trends

• Jobless Claims (THURSDAY): Timely labor market update

• Markets continue monitoring whether the “low-hire, low-fire” environment remains intact

Why This Week Matters 👉🏾

Inflation remains the single biggest variable for both the Federal Reserve and financial markets.

If CPI and PPI come in hotter than expected:

• Markets could price in fewer rate cuts

• Treasury yields may rise further

• Rate-sensitive sectors like REITs and small caps could face pressure

• Volatility may increase across equities

However, if core inflation remains stable despite higher oil prices:

• Investors may look past the headline spike

• Markets could continue focusing on earnings growth and consumer strength

• The broader disinflation narrative may remain intact

For now, this is another week where the data matters.

Inflation is back in focus — and the Fed will be watching closely.

How do you think this week’s reports will affect the market? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

🧐 Happy Investing!

If you’re someone who looking to start investing and need help creating passive income to achieve financial freedom, check out our investment group iREIT+HOYA Capital over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET A FREE INVESTING GROUP TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

And the platform allows writers to share one article once a week free of charge. So, I like to share them with all my current & future subscribers. (see below).

After starting 2026 off slow, the S&P (SP500) is up close to 8% YTD. Even though this is true, some stocks and sectors have seen increased volatility recently.

This could be due to earnings pressure from the challenging economic backdrop, or for some, overvaluation.

For the stock in this week’s article of the week, I think it is a case of potential overvaluation and not an indication of weak fundamentals.

And Warren Buffett’s famous quote: “Price is what you pay, value is what you get” applies to this dividend growth stock. Offering massive upside in the coming years, I think T-Mobile’s (TMUS) investment case is appealing for long-term dividend growth investors.

Let me know what you think of the article in the comments!

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

🤑 Happy Investing!

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now, or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

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My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $

Dividend/Yield: $

Since Omnicom Group (OMC) first popped up on my radar a few years ago, shares have been somewhat volatile, bouncing between $80 and $100 a share.

And the stock has always been very interesting to me.

But their lack of growth is one of the main reasons I’ve remained skeptical until now. The company recently acquired another media & advertising giant, Interpublic Group of Companies.

With the acquisition completed, OMC looks attractive as they expect growth to ramp up in the coming years.

With a forward P/E of just 7.04x, I believe Wall Street may be underestimating OMC and think shares could re-rate in the next 24 to 36 months. Especially, if they can manage to meet growth expectations.

The dividend yield close to 4% is another incentive to invest if looking for an attractively priced stock with massive upside potential.

In this article, I discuss Omnicom Group’s latest earnings, fundamentals, why I believe shares could re-rate in the near future, and why Wall Street may be overlooking this quality compounder.

Acquisition Synergies Seem To Be Paying Off 🚀

As previously mentioned, OMC closed on their acquisition with IPG at the end of last November. And judging by Omnicom’s Q1 earnings report, the media & advertising giant delivered what I thought was strong growth across the board.

Their bottom line grew 11.8%, while revenue surged to $5.6 billion. Organic revenue growth came in at 3.9%, up from 3.4% the prior year.

Adjusted EBITDA increased from $653.1 million to $833.5 million, helping margins expand from 12.4% to 14.8%.

Management attributed the strong growth to portfolio realignment and acquisition synergies.

Although the quarter initially looked mixed on the surface with only a modest EPS beat of $0.06, growth compared to last year’s quarter improved significantly.

During Q1’25, OMC’s earnings per share only grew 1.8% year-over-year, from $1.67 to $1.70. Revenue growth was also far slower at just 1.65%.

This historical lack of growth is likely one of the primary reasons the stock has underperformed over the past 3, 5, and 10 years.

More recently, I think concerns surrounding artificial intelligence adoption and macro uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict have weighed on shares as well.

And while volatility may continue near term, if management can continue executing through:

• Portfolio repositioning

• AI integration

• Accelerated share buybacks

• Acquisition synergies

…I believe Omnicom has a strong chance of seeing a significant price re-rating.

Management reiterated expectations for roughly $900 million in 2026 synergies while also planning to continue aggressively repurchasing shares.

That combination alone could drive strong bottom-line growth over the next several years.

Performance Breakdown 📊

Breaking down Omnicom’s performance further, most segments experienced solid growth during the quarter with the exception of Advertising.

Management did not provide specific reasons for the weakness, but I believe increasing AI adoption among businesses could be impacting demand.

However, as OMC continues integrating IPG’s core assets, I expect growth trends to improve.

During Q1, management disposed of roughly $1 billion in non-core assets and expects additional sales in the coming quarters.

In total, Omnicom plans to divest portfolio assets representing approximately $3.2 billion in annual revenue.

This strategy allows management to focus on core operations expected to drive higher long-term growth.

Their Integrated Media segment led the way with high single-digit growth, while other segments delivered mid-single-digit growth.

Regionally:

• U.S. revenue grew nearly 72%

• Middle East revenue surged 146%

• Latin America revenue climbed 80.9%

Overall, the quarter showed meaningful operational improvement following the acquisition.

Double-Digit EPS Growth Expected 📈

During the quarter, management stated they expect higher double-digit EPS growth in the coming quarters compared to Q1.

One major reason for their confidence appears to be aggressive share repurchases.

In Q1 alone, management repurchased $2.8 billion in stock and still had $3.2 billion remaining under the current authorization.

I fully expect buybacks to remain aggressive throughout the next 12 months and would not be surprised to see management expand the program further.

70% Free Cash Flow Growth 💵

Another factor likely contributing to OMC’s historical underperformance was stagnant dividend growth.

Before the recent 14.3% dividend increase, the payout had remained stuck at $0.70 since 2021.

But thanks to:

• Acquisition synergies

• Improved cash flow

• Aggressive buybacks

…I believe dividend growth should accelerate going forward.

During the quarter, free cash flow surged 70% year-over-year to $656.9 million.

Management paid out just $251.7 million in dividends, resulting in a comfortable payout ratio of only 38.3%.

They also exited 2025 with a payout ratio near 33%, giving them substantial flexibility for future dividend hikes.

If management continues executing, I wouldn’t be surprised to see high single-digit or even double-digit dividend growth moving forward.

Balance Sheet Risks Remain ⚖️

One area investors should continue monitoring closely is leverage.

Net debt-to-EBITDA rose significantly to 5.6x post-acquisition compared to just 1.1x pre-deal.

Net debt increased from $2.7 billion to $5.7 billion, while long-term debt rose from $6.1 billion to $10 billion.

That said, liquidity remains solid with approximately $4.3 billion available.

Debt maturities also appear manageable, with the next major maturity not arriving until July 2027.

Still, reducing leverage should remain a top priority for management moving forward.

Why Shares Could Re-Rate Higher ↗️

Aside from the IPG acquisition and portfolio repositioning, Omnicom is also leaning heavily into AI through the launch of Omni.

Omni is an AI-driven marketing intelligence platform designed to:

• Improve media engagement

• Increase campaign performance

• Boost ROI

• Enhance brand scale and efficiency

Management also announced expanded client relationships during the quarter with companies including:

• Exxon Mobil (XOM)

• Delta Air Lines (DAL)

• Clorox (CLX)

• Merck & Co. (MRK)

• Kroger (KR)

Although integration will take time, I believe Omnicom has a strong chance of seeing shares re-rate over the next 24 to 36 months.

At the current share price around $77 and using 2026 EPS estimates of $10.92, OMC trades at just 7.04x forward earnings.

That valuation appears far too cheap if management can deliver:

• Double-digit EPS growth

• Synergy realization

• Higher margins

• Accelerated dividend growth

At current levels, investors also collect a well-covered dividend yield near 4%.

Risks To Consider ⚠️

Despite my bullishness, risks remain.

The current macro environment could continue pressuring shares due to:

• Higher-for-longer interest rates

• Inflation concerns

• Geopolitical instability

• AI disruption risks

Additionally, the increased debt load post-acquisition may limit upside until investors gain more confidence in deleveraging progress.

Businesses increasingly adopting AI internally may also reduce demand for traditional advertising services over time.

Still, I believe Omnicom is positioning itself well through:

• Portfolio optimization

• AI integration

• Buybacks

• Synergy realization

• Strong free cash flow generation

Bottom Line ✅

While I expect volatility to persist in the near to medium term, I believe Omnicom Group presents one of the more compelling long-term value opportunities in the market today.

The combination of:

• A forward P/E of just 7.04x

• A dividend yield near 4%

• Accelerating free cash flow

• Double-digit EPS growth expectations

• Aggressive buybacks

• AI integration

• Post-merger synergies

…creates a compelling setup for long-term investors.

If management can continue executing successfully, I believe Wall Street will eventually assign OMC a significantly higher valuation multiple.

As a result, I am doubling down on my buy rating and believe shares offer attractive upside potential over the next 24 to 36 months.

Is Omnicom a stock for your portfolio? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.

My goal there is to teach everyday investors about building wealth, so they won’t to need to work to traditional retirement age.

I want to help you take control of your life, have F.I.R.E.

Here at Dividend Collection Agency the goal is to give investors and/or readers a different perspective. We take a simple approach to building wealth. And although investing may seem easy, people often miss opportunities by over complicating it.

But we are here to help.

Current Price: $72.79

Dividend/Yield: $1.06/5.78%

Altria (MO) just reported Q1 earnings, and if you’ve followed the company long enough, you already know the story.

It was another resilient, steady, and predictable quarter.

Despite ongoing macro uncertainty, inflation pressures, and the continued secular decline in traditional smoking, Altria once again demonstrated why it remains a staple in many income portfolios.

They beat on both the top and bottom line, expanded margins, and continued executing on their smokeless transition strategy.

But here’s the key question:

👉🏾 After a 23% run over the past year… how much upside is really left?

Q1 Results: Beating Expectations Again 📊

Altria delivered a double-beat quarter:

• EPS: $1.32 (beat by $0.07)

• Revenue: $4.76B (beat by ~$180M)

Year-over-year growth:

• EPS: +7.3%

• Revenue: +3.2%

While both metrics declined sequentially, the year-over-year growth tells the real story — the business remains stable and continues to grind higher.

For comparison, peer Philip Morris International (PM) posted stronger growth, but at a significantly higher valuation — reinforcing Altria’s positioning as the more income-focused, value-oriented play.

The Transition Story: Smokeless Is Working 🔄

One of the most important aspects of Altria’s long-term thesis is its ability to successfully transition away from combustible products.

And this quarter provided more evidence that progress is being made.

Key Highlights:

• on! nicotine pouch volumes: +18% YoY

• Shipments: 46 million cans

• on! PLUS: Expanded to nationwide distribution

• Retail share: Slight YoY dip, but sequential improvement

This matters because:

👉🏾 Smokeless products are no longer just a “future story”

👉🏾 They are actively offsetting declines in cigarettes today

At the same time, traditional cigarette volume declines are moderating:

• Reported decline: -2.4%

• Adjusted decline: ~-5%

• Prior year comparison: -12%

That’s a meaningful improvement and suggests the worst of the volume contraction may be behind us.

Pricing Power & Margin Expansion 💪🏾

Altria continues to lean on one of its greatest strengths:

Pricing power

• Price increases of ~3% helped offset volume declines

• Operating income (OCI): +6.3% YoY

• Margins expanded from 64.4% → 65.1%

This is what makes Altria unique.

Even in a declining volume environment, the company can:

✔ Raise prices

✔ Maintain margins

✔ Generate consistent cash flow

Dividends & Buybacks: The Core Investment Case 💰

Let’s be clear — this is still an income-first story.

Q1 Capital Returns:

• Dividends paid: $1.8B

• Buybacks: $280M (4.5M shares)

• Remaining authorization: ~$720M

Key Metrics:

• Dividend yield: ~6%

• Payout ratio: ~85%

The slightly reduced buyback activity is likely due to the higher share price, but the strategy remains intact:

👉🏾 Buybacks + dividends = shareholder return machine.

And as long as cash flow remains stable, the dividend appears secure in the near term.

Balance Sheet: Quietly Strengthening ⚖️

Altria continues to improve its financial position:

• Leverage ratio: 1.9x (down from 2.1x)

• Debt: ~$24B

• Cash: ~$3.5B

Management retired over $1B in debt recently, which adds flexibility going forward.

This gives them room to:

• Continue buybacks

• Support dividend growth

• Navigate macro uncertainty

The Macro Risk: Inflation Is a Double-Edged Sword ⚠️

Here’s where the story gets more nuanced.

The Bull Case:

• Higher yields attract income investors

• Defensive names tend to hold up better

• “Bond proxy” behavior supports demand

The Bear Case:

• Higher gas & living costs reduce disposable income

• Consumers trade down to discount products

• Premium brands (like Marlboro) lose share

We’re already seeing signs of this:

• Marlboro retail share: -1.4 points YoY

• Discount segment gaining share

• Management citing pressure on lower-income consumers

Inflation helps the stock narrative…but hurts the consumer behavior.

That tension could drive near-term volatility.

Valuation: Still Cheap… But Less Compelling 💵

From a valuation standpoint, Altria still looks attractive:

Forward P/E: ~12.9x

Peer comparison: Philip Morris International (PM): ~19.5x

But valuation alone doesn’t drive returns.

After a strong rally:

• The margin of safety has shrunk

• Expectations have increased

• Downside risk is more visible

Outlook: Steady, Not Explosive 🔮

Management reaffirmed full-year guidance:

• EPS: $5.56 – $5.72

• Growth: ~4%

Altria continues to check all the boxes:

✔ Strong cash flow

✔ Reliable dividend

✔ Pricing power

✔ Improving balance sheet

✔ Progress in smokeless products

But investing is about timing and risk/reward, not just quality.

Bottom Line ✅

Despite the strong quarter and solid fundamentals:

• The stock is up ~23% over the past year

• Trading near highs

• Facing increasing macro headwinds

I now see more downside risk than upside in the near term.

That doesn’t mean sell.

It means:

👉🏾 Be patient

👉🏾 Collect the dividend

👉🏾 Wait for a better entry point

Altria remains one of the most reliable income plays in the market.

But after the recent run…

…The easy money has likely already been made (for now).

Do you hold Altria? What is your cost basis? Let me know in the comments.

Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!

Happy Investing!

☎️ If you’re looking to create passive income and build your wealth from one of the top-rated analysts, book a call (Let’s Talk Investing or Detailed Portfolio Review) with me to get started.

If you’re looking to start investing check out our investment group over on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s How: Click the Seeking Alpha link here. Click investing group, subscribe now (GET AN INVESTING GROUP FREE TRIAL), or the blue hyperlink in my bio.

Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.