🗓️ Economic Data For The Week
"Week of May 25th to May 29th"
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The week ahead may be shortened by the Memorial Day holiday, but investors will still face a packed slate of economic data that could shape expectations for inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.
U.S. markets will remain closed MONDAY for Memorial Day before attention quickly shifts toward a heavy lineup of housing data, inflation reports, labor market updates, GDP revisions, and regional manufacturing activity.
The biggest report of the week arrives THURSDAY with the release of the PCE Inflation report — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
After recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings, markets will be closely watching to see whether price pressures continue reaccelerating heading into the summer months.
Key Economic Reports 📄
TUESDAY – Housing Data 🏡
Housing remains a major area of focus as elevated mortgage rates continue pressuring affordability and buyer demand.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Expected: +1.0% YoY
FHFA House Price Index
Expected: +1.6% YoY
Previous: +1.7%
While home prices remain resilient, higher financing costs continue limiting transaction activity and weighing on housing momentum.
THURSDAY – Main Event: PCE Inflation + GDP Revision 🎪
Thursday brings the most important reports of the week.
PCE Inflation Report
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is expected to show inflation reaccelerating again in April.
Headline PCE
Expected: 3.8%
Previous: 3.5%
Core PCE
Expected: 3.3%
Previous: 3.2%
If inflation comes in hotter than expected once again, markets could further push out expectations for potential Fed rate cuts later this year.
Consumer Spending & Income 💵
Investors will also closely watch whether higher prices and elevated borrowing costs are beginning to pressure consumers.
Personal Income
Expected: +0.4%
Personal Spending
Expected: +0.5%
A slowdown in spending could reinforce concerns that consumers are gradually becoming more cautious amid persistent inflation and tighter financial conditions.
GDP Revision
We’ll also receive the first revision to Q1 GDP.
Q1 GDP (2nd Estimate)
Expected: 2.0%
While economic growth remains solid overall, investors continue monitoring whether higher rates are beginning to slow broader economic activity.
New Home Sales 🏷️
Housing data continues THURSDAY with New Home Sales.
New Home Sales
Expected: 660k
Previous: 682k
Mortgage rates remain one of the largest headwinds facing the housing market, particularly as affordability conditions remain historically stretched.
Labor Market Updates 📰
Labor data will remain important throughout the week.
Initial Jobless Claims
Expected: 212k
Continuing Claims
Expected: 1.78M
The labor market has remained surprisingly resilient despite elevated interest rates, though investors continue searching for signs of softening employment conditions.
FRIDAY – Manufacturing & Energy 🔌
FRIDAY closes out the week with regional manufacturing activity and energy market data.
Chicago PMI
Expected: 50.5
Previous: Below 50
A move back above 50 would signal expansionary activity and could suggest improving manufacturing conditions.
Baker Hughes Rig Count
Energy investors will also monitor the weekly rig count for additional insight into domestic energy production trends.
Fed Speakers This Week 🗣️
Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, including:
Logan
Cook
Jefferson
Williams
Goolsbee
Bowman
These comments could provide additional clues ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting on June 17.
Bottom Line ✅
This may be a holiday-shortened week, but it could still carry significant implications for markets.
Inflation remains the market’s primary focus. Another hot PCE report could further pressure equities and reduce optimism surrounding near-term rate cuts.
At the same time, slowing spending, softer housing data, and rising jobless claims could reinforce concerns that elevated rates are beginning to weigh more heavily on the economy.
Markets continue balancing two competing narratives:
Sticky inflation keeping rates higher for longer
Slowing economic momentum increasing pressure for eventual policy easing
This week’s data could play a major role in determining which narrative gains momentum heading into June.
How do you think this week’s reports will affect the market? Let me know in the comments.
Just a note to let readers know I will be going paid soon. Be on the lookout for the article laying out the details. Feel free to provide any feedback!
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