🗓️ Economic Data Of The Week
“June 22nd to June 26th”
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The week ahead brings a packed calendar of housing, inflation, and consumer data as investors look for signs that the recent surge in oil prices is beginning to filter through to the broader economy.
The headline event arrives Thursday with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect headline PCE inflation to accelerate to 4.1% year-over-year in May, up from 3.8% in April. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to edge higher to 3.4% from 3.3%.
If those forecasts prove accurate, inflation would remain well above the Fed’s 2% target and reinforce concerns that price pressures are becoming more persistent.
The PCE report will be released alongside Personal Income and Personal Spending data. Spending is expected to increase 0.6% during the month, while income is projected to rise 0.4%, signaling that consumers remain resilient despite higher energy costs and elevated borrowing rates.
Housing data will also draw attention. On Wednesday, New Home Sales for May are expected to rise to an annualized pace of 640,000 units from 622,000 in April. The new-home market continues to serve as an important release valve for housing supply, as builders remain more willing than existing homeowners to offer incentives and adjust pricing to attract buyers.
Thursday’s calendar will also include the first revision to first-quarter Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to remain unchanged at 1.6%, along with weekly jobless claims that continue to point toward a historically strong labor market.
The week concludes with the final June reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Economists expect the index to remain at 48.9, near historically depressed levels, highlighting the disconnect between resilient economic activity and cautious consumer attitudes.
Investors will also closely monitor inflation expectations within the survey after the Federal Reserve’s latest projections showed policymakers growing increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook.
In addition to the economic data, several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week as markets continue recalibrating expectations following Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC press conference and ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting on July 29.
Key Reports This Week 🔑
WEDNESDAY
New Home Sales (May)
THURSDAY
PCE Price Index (May)
Core PCE Price Index (May)
Personal Income
Personal Spending
Q1 GDP Revision
Weekly Jobless Claims
FRIDAY
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final June Reading)
With inflation showing signs of reaccelerating and policymakers signaling a higher-for-longer stance on interest rates, this week’s data could play a critical role in shaping expectations for the Fed and financial markets during the second half of the year.
How do you think this week’s reports will affect the market? Let me know in the comments.
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