🗓️ Economic Data Of The Week
"Week of June 29th to July 3rd"
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Markets will navigate a holiday-shortened trading week packed with high-impact economic data, culminating in Thursday’s June Employment Report before markets close for the Independence Day Holiday on Friday.
Labor Market 👷🏾
The biggest focus will be the labor market, as investors look for additional clues on whether economic growth is slowing enough to influence the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to increase by 115,000 in June, down from 172,000 in May, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings—a closely watched measure of wage inflation—are projected to hold near 3.5% year-over-year, roughly the lowest pace seen in four years. Continued moderation in wage growth would support the view that inflation pressures are gradually easing without a significant deterioration in employment.
Employment 💼
Employment data begins arriving earlier in the week. Tuesday’s JOLTS report is expected to show job openings declining to 7.288 million from 7.618 million, signaling a labor market that continues to cool but remains historically healthy. Wednesday’s ADP Employment Report is forecast to show 119,000 private-sector jobs added during June.
Investors will also closely monitor Thursday’s weekly Jobless Claims report. Initial claims are expected to remain historically low near 220,000, while continuing claims are forecast to stay around 1.8 million, suggesting layoffs remain limited despite slower hiring activity.
Housing/Manufacturing 🏡
Housing and manufacturing data will also provide insight into the broader economy.
Tuesday’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index is expected to show home prices rising just 1% year over year, continuing a trend of significantly slower appreciation compared to wage growth. Since early 2023, national home prices have increased roughly 3.5% annually, while disposable personal income has grown at approximately 7% per year. That divergence has gradually helped improve affordability after several years of rapid home price inflation.
Construction Spending is expected to rise just 1% year over year, reflecting continued supply constraints across much of the commercial real estate market despite resilient demand in select sectors.
Manufacturing returns to focus on Wednesday with both the ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reports. Investors will be looking for further evidence that manufacturing activity is stabilizing after an extended period of weakness.
Markets will also pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to speak during the European Central Bank’s annual forum. Any clues regarding the Fed’s outlook for inflation, interest rates, or the labor market could influence expectations heading into the second half of the year.
Bottom Line ✅
This week’s economic calendar has the potential to shape market sentiment heading into July. While employment data will likely dominate headlines, housing activity, manufacturing trends, and commentary from the Federal Reserve will provide important context for investors trying to determine whether the economy is slowing enough to justify future policy easing—or whether inflation remains persistent enough to keep interest rates elevated for longer.
How do you think this week’s reports will affect the market? Let me know in the comments.
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