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Markets face another critical week of economic data, with CPI and PPI inflation reports taking center stage following Friday’s surprisingly weak employment report.
Tuesday – Housing 🏠
Existing Home Sales are expected to decline slightly to a 4.06M annualized pace, remaining near multi-decade lows as mortgage rates hover around 6.8%.
Wednesday – CPI Inflation 🔥
July headline CPI is expected to cool modestly to 3.4% YoY from 3.5%, while Core CPI is projected to ease to 2.5% from 2.6%. The report will help determine whether June’s favorable inflation print marked the beginning of a more durable cooling trend or was largely driven by temporarily lower energy prices.
Thursday – Producer Inflation 🏭
PPI is expected to show a sharper slowdown, with headline inflation falling to 4.9% from 5.5% and Core PPI easing to 4.1% from 4.7%. Another benign inflation report, combined with weaker hiring, could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further. An upside surprise, however, could quickly revive expectations for a September rate hike.
Friday – Consumer Check 🛍️
Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.2%, while Michigan Consumer Sentiment is projected to slip to 54.6. One- and five-year inflation expectations are expected to remain elevated at 4.2% and 3.3%, respectively.
What I’m Watching 👀
The CPI and PPI reports will likely be the biggest market catalysts this week. Softer inflation alongside deteriorating labor-market conditions could strengthen the case for the Fed to remain on hold. But hotter-than-expected inflation could put a September hike firmly back on the table, potentially creating another volatile week for stocks and bonds.
How do you think this week’s reports will affect the market?
Let me know what you think in the comments.
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Not financial advice. For educational purposes only. I am not a licensed professional. Do your own due diligence.
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